DOES ONE EVENT PROVE WHAT CAUSED ANOTHER?
Bible and Logic — Study 5
Why something happening before another event does not automatically prove that it caused it.
1. Just Because One Thing Happened First...
Imagine this situation.
A man washes his car.
An hour later, it rains.
He says, "Every time I wash my car, it rains!"
Perhaps you have heard someone say that.
But did washing the car cause the rain?
Of course not.
The two events happened close together, but that does not establish a connection between them.
Now consider another example.
A rooster crows every morning.
Shortly afterward, the sun rises.
Does the rooster's crowing cause the sun to rise?
No.
The rooster crows before sunrise, but the crowing does not cause the sunrise.
These examples illustrate a common mistake in reasoning.
It is sometimes called false cause.
One particular form is known by the Latin expression post hoc ergo propter hoc, meaning:
"After this, therefore because of this."
The mistake occurs when someone assumes that because one event happened before another, the first event must have caused the second.
Something happening before another event does not, by itself, prove that it caused it.
This principle is especially important when studying biblical history, prophecy, and God's providence.
2. What Is the Difference Between Sequence and Cause?
A sequence tells us the order in which events happened.
A cause helps explain why something happened.
Those are not the same thing.
Consider these statements:
Event 1: A man prayed.
Event 2: The man recovered from an illness.
Conclusion: Therefore, his prayer caused his recovery.
Is that conclusion necessarily established by the two statements?
No.
The recovery followed the prayer, but the sequence alone does not prove what caused it.
The man may have received medical treatment.
His body may have recovered naturally.
God may have answered his prayer.
More than one factor may have contributed.
We should not automatically rule out God's involvement.
But neither should we claim that the timing alone proves exactly how God acted.
The order of events is evidence of when things happened, not necessarily why they happened.
3. Does the Bible Teach That God Answers Prayer?
Yes.
James 5:16 teaches that the prayer of a righteous person is powerful and effective.
Jesus encouraged His disciples to pray (Matthew 7:7–11).
Paul instructed Christians to pray about their concerns (Philippians 4:6).
We should not weaken these teachings.
But we must distinguish between two claims:
Claim 1: God hears and answers prayer.
Claim 2: Whenever something good happens after I pray, I know that my prayer caused that particular result in exactly the way I imagine.
The first claim is supported by Scripture.
The second does not necessarily follow.
Consider Paul.
In 2 Corinthians 12:7–10, Paul describes a thorn in the flesh.
He pleaded with the Lord three times that it might leave him.
But the answer was not the removal Paul requested.
Instead, the Lord told him:
"My grace is sufficient for you, for my power is made perfect in weakness" (2 Corinthians 12:9).
Paul prayed.
God answered.
But the answer was not what Paul originally requested.
This teaches us to be careful about claiming that we know exactly how God must respond to every prayer.
4. Did Jesus Warn Against Assuming the Cause of Suffering?
Yes.
Consider John 9:1–3.
Jesus and His disciples encountered a man who had been blind from birth.
The disciples asked:
"Rabbi, who sinned, this man or his parents, that he was born blind?"
Notice their assumption.
They believed the man's blindness must have resulted from someone's particular sin.
Their question offered only two possible causes.
Either the man sinned, or his parents sinned.
But Jesus rejected their explanation.
He said that neither the man's sin nor his parents' sin explained his blindness in the way the disciples assumed.
Jesus then directed attention to the works of God that would be displayed.
The disciples had observed a real condition.
But they had drawn an unsupported conclusion about its cause.
They knew the man was blind. They did not know why.
Jesus corrected their reasoning.
This is an important lesson for us.
We may see suffering, sickness, hardship, or tragedy.
But we should not assume that we know which personal sin caused it.
The Bible teaches that sin has brought suffering and death into the world.
That does not mean every individual case of suffering can be traced to a particular sin committed by the person suffering.
5. What About Job's Friends?
The book of Job gives us an extended example of faulty reasoning about suffering.
Job experienced terrible losses.
His children died.
His possessions were taken away.
His health collapsed.
His friends came to comfort him.
But they began arguing that his suffering must be evidence of serious wrongdoing.
Their reasoning was approximately this:
Premise 1: God punishes wicked people.
Premise 2: Job is suffering terribly.
Conclusion: Therefore, Job must be wicked.
The conclusion does not follow.
Even if we accept that God judges wickedness, it does not follow that everyone who suffers is being punished for personal wickedness.
That would require an additional premise:
"Everyone who suffers terribly must be suffering because of personal sin."
But the book of Job does not support that premise.
In fact, the opening chapters tell readers that Job was blameless and upright (Job 1:1).
The readers know something Job's friends do not.
His suffering cannot be explained by the accusations they make against him.
At the end of the book, God rebukes Job's friends for failing to speak rightly about Him (Job 42:7).
Their mistake was not that they believed God is just.
Their mistake was assuming they understood the cause of Job's suffering when they did not.
A true belief about God's justice does not give us permission to invent explanations for events we do not understand.
6. Can We Mistake God's Permission for God's Approval?
Yes.
This is another mistake involving conclusions about causes and purposes.
The Bible records many actions that God permitted people to perform.
But the fact that an event happened does not mean God approved of the human actions involved.
Consider Joseph.
His brothers sold him into slavery.
Years later, Joseph told them:
"You meant evil against me, but God meant it for good" (Genesis 50:20).
Notice the distinction.
Joseph did not say his brothers' actions were good.
He said they intended evil.
Yet God worked through those events to accomplish good.
The same historical event involved human wrongdoing and God's providential purpose.
We must not confuse the two.
God's ability to bring good from an evil action does not make the evil action good.
Nor does it mean that every human decision involved was commanded or approved by God.
This distinction is especially important when interpreting biblical history.
7. Does a Fulfilled Prediction Prove Every Claim Made About It?
Not necessarily.
Suppose a teacher predicts that a particular event will happen.
Later, something similar occurs.
The teacher then says:
"My prediction came true. Therefore, everything I teach must be correct."
Does that conclusion follow?
No.
Even if the prediction was specific and genuinely fulfilled, that alone would not establish the truth of every other claim the teacher makes.
Deuteronomy 13:1–3 addresses a particularly important situation.
Moses warns Israel about a prophet or dreamer who gives a sign or wonder that comes to pass but then urges the people to follow other gods.
The instruction is clear.
Israel must not follow that person into idolatry.
The apparent success of the sign does not cancel God's earlier revelation.
This teaches us that a striking event, even one connected with a prediction, does not automatically establish the truth of an entire religious message.
A claim must be tested by all the relevant evidence, not merely by one impressive event.
8. How Do We Establish a Cause?
This question deserves careful attention.
We do not establish a cause merely by showing that one event came before another.
We look for evidence of a real connection.
That may include:
A direct statement explaining the cause.
Reliable testimony from someone who knows what happened.
Repeated evidence showing a meaningful relationship.
A reasonable explanation of how one event produced another.
Consideration of other possible causes.
Not every situation requires all these kinds of evidence.
And sometimes we cannot determine the cause with certainty.
When Scripture directly identifies the cause of an event, we should take that statement seriously.
For example, Acts 5:1–11 records the deaths of Ananias and Sapphira in connection with their deception.
The account itself connects their judgment with their conduct.
But we must not take that account and conclude that every person who dies suddenly must have been judged for a similar sin.
The passage explains a particular event.
It does not establish a universal explanation for every sudden death.
A cause established in one case must not automatically be assigned to every similar case.
9. What About God's Providence?
Christians believe that God is active in His creation.
Romans 8:28 teaches that God works for good for those who love Him and are called according to His purpose.
But this does not mean we know the immediate reason for every event.
Consider two statements:
Statement 1: God can work through difficult circumstances to accomplish His purposes.
Statement 2: Therefore, I know exactly why God allowed this particular difficulty in my life.
The second statement does not necessarily follow from the first.
We may trust God's promises without claiming knowledge He has not given us.
Joseph could look back on his experiences and recognize God's providential work.
But during many of those experiences, Joseph did not have the complete picture.
We should be careful about claiming certainty concerning God's hidden purposes.
Trusting God's providence is not the same as knowing every detail of His providence.
10. Can Two Events Be Connected Without One Causing the Other?
Yes.
Sometimes two events occur together because they share another cause.
For example, when the weather becomes extremely hot, people buy more cold drinks.
During the same period, more people may go swimming.
The increase in cold-drink sales does not cause people to swim.
Both activities may increase because of the hot weather.
This is called a common cause.
The same principle can help us examine historical and religious claims.
Suppose two churches adopt similar practices during the same period.
That does not automatically prove that one copied the other.
Both may have responded to the same circumstances.
They may have inherited an earlier practice.
Or there may be another explanation.
We need evidence before identifying a cause.
Events that occur together are not necessarily connected in the way we first imagine.
11. Some Objections Worth Considering
Objection: "Doesn't the Bible teach that God causes things to happen?"
Yes.
Scripture repeatedly describes God's actions in history.
But we must distinguish between events whose causes Scripture reveals and events whose causes we merely guess.
The Bible's teaching about God's power does not make every human explanation of His actions correct.
Objection: "If someone prays and then recovers, shouldn't we thank God?"
Certainly.
Christians may thank God for recovery and for the means through which recovery occurred.
But gratitude does not require us to claim certainty about every physical or providential cause involved.
Objection: "Doesn't this deny miracles?"
No.
A miracle may be established by adequate evidence.
The point is that the mere order of events does not prove a miracle occurred.
Scripture itself provides testimony concerning miracles and their significance.
Objection: "If we cannot know every cause, how can we know anything?"
We can know causes when sufficient evidence establishes them.
The principle does not forbid conclusions about causes.
It forbids claiming more certainty than the evidence supports.
12. Try It Yourself
Consider this argument:
Premise 1: A congregation experienced financial difficulties.
Premise 2: The congregation had recently changed its meeting location.
Conclusion: Therefore, changing the meeting location caused the financial difficulties.
Does the conclusion follow?
No.
The two events may be connected.
But other explanations are possible.
We would need additional evidence.
Now consider this biblical example.
Acts 12:21–23 records that Herod received praise as though he were a god.
The passage then states that an angel of the Lord struck him because he did not give God the glory.
In this case, the biblical account directly identifies the reason for the judgment.
But suppose someone concludes:
"Therefore, every ruler who becomes seriously ill is being punished for accepting praise."
Does that conclusion follow?
No.
Acts 12 explains what happened to Herod.
It does not give us authority to assign the same cause to every ruler's illness.
13. What Have We Learned?
We have learned that:
An event happening before another event does not automatically prove causation.
Sequence and cause are different things.
Two events may share a common cause.
Suffering does not automatically prove personal wrongdoing.
God's permission of an event does not necessarily mean His approval of the human actions involved.
A fulfilled prediction does not establish every other claim made by the person who predicted it.
Scripture sometimes identifies the cause of a particular event.
We must not turn an explanation of one event into a universal rule without adequate evidence.
Trusting God's providence does not mean knowing all His hidden purposes.
Here is the principle to remember:
BECAUSE ONE THING HAPPENED BEFORE ANOTHER DOES NOT MEAN IT CAUSED THE OTHER.
A Final Thought
We all want explanations.
When something good happens, we want to know why.
When something terrible happens, we especially want to know why.
But wanting an explanation does not mean we possess one.
Sometimes Scripture tells us why something happened.
Sometimes careful examination of the evidence gives us a reasonable explanation.
And sometimes we simply do not know.
In those situations, we should resist the temptation to turn our assumptions into facts.
Especially when speaking about God's actions, we must be careful not to claim knowledge He has not revealed.
Read First. Reason Carefully. Conclude Later.
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